config.yml and set future: false.]]>To access our store, click the link in the upper right corner of this site, or just click on the image above. Hurry! Our store closes on December 22nd, 2024!
Stay tuned for more highlights from our trip! here
Stay tuned for more highlights from our trip!
A surface level disturbance will track into the Great Lakes region, the main culprit of the severe weather on tap for today. With this low pressure disturbance, a cold front will serve as the main lifting mechanism to fire off our severe weather stretching from Georgia to New York state. Along with the cold front, a warm front is going to lift north into the Pennsylvania region, which will allow destabilization throughout the Commonwealth. Numerical model guidance suggest adequate shear parameters will be present with 40-60 knots, which is favorable for tornadic development in discrete supercell formation. Storm relative helicity (SRH) values are also showing values of at least 150-200 m²/s², allowing for thunderstorms to rotate. In addition, a lee side trough is expected to setup along the mountains. Similarly to fronts, this trough will serve as a focal point for destabilization and allow for convective initiation. All severe weather hazards are possible throughout the afternoon hours, with the main concern for damaging wind gusts and a 5% tornado risk, as outlined by the NWS SPC.
During the morning hours, cloud cover throughout the region will inhibit some of the morning convection, allowing storms to begin firing off in the afternoon. Once the clouds begin to break in the later morning hours of the day, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values will begin to build, allowing instability to reach levels of 1,000-2,000 J/Kg.
Be sure to tune into your local television station, or wherever you get your weather alerts, and please stay weather aware today!
According to the shorter range models (sourcing from the HRRR, NAM 3k CONUS, NAM, and HREF), an eventful Monday afternoon seems to be on tap for the Delmarva region, stretching into Southeastern Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey. The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted these regions in an Enhanced Risk (a level 3 out of 5).
Considerable amounts of instability (1200+ J/kg) and steepening lapse rates will be present, causing the atmosphere to become conducive for strong to severe thunderstorm development. One concern that could inhibit any tornadic development is the weak shear that is present within the upper level trough. 500 mb heights show less than ideal jet streaks with a general consensus of shear being between 30-40 kts. Models are also suggesting SRH values of 60-120 m^2/s^2 for around Southeastern PA into the Delmarva, which is also less than ideal for any tornadic development. As of right now, it seems the most favorable conditions are south of the Mason-Dixon line into Southeastern Pennsylvania. Some thoughts that were discussed within our forecast team involved taking into consideration the warm frontal boundary that is to move into Northeastern Pennsylvania. The main modes of severe weather across the region will be damaging winds and potential large hail, as outlined by the NWS WFOs in State College, PA and Mount Holly, NJ.
No final decisions regarding our final target destination have been made. We will outline a general target area in the mid-morning hours Monday after taking into consideration mesoscale analysis maps. As of right now, we are looking at the Delmarva region being the target area.
For one, a ridge is developing over the Rockies, which suppresses the setup of the trough ejection. The trough itself is not very amplified, which historically is not a positive sign for large-scale tornadic activity. Models, crucially the ECMWF and GFS, have struggled to nail down the dates of the greatest severe threat.
Additionally, this coincided with time-sensitive logistical and resource challenges that would have complicated a deployment on this event. We are, however, closely monitoring for the potential of other setups following this system.